EXB’s guide to the German elections 2021



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Most likely chancellor

Why do you write that Laschet is most likely to win?

He is far from having a majority, so there will be a coalition, the most likely is CDU/SPD/Greens, in which case, how do they decide who gets to be chancellor? Isn't there most affinity between SPD and Greens that between CDU and either of them?

Thanks for explaining!

Simon 19 days ago


Yep, my bad - I wrote this before Laschet's precipitous crash in the polls. It's really close now. Usually whichever party has most seats in parliament gets to pick chancellor.

Konrad 18 days ago


"The CDU is still convinced that building new homes (1.5 million in the next five years) will somehow help ease the housing crisis and the party rejects any rent caps." "still" "somehow"?

There is an obvious logical path here: more homes increases supply, which lowers prices.

Devon 19 days ago

Not necessarily

Large property developers can also hoard apartments, keeping them off the market to drive up rent prices. There's more than one way to make a profit.

Konrad 18 days ago

Bias indeed

It doesn't sound to me like a well informed opinion.

The large property developers take enormous loans to build their stuff, that they need to repay. They also get their money from the investors, who expect a well predicted return, with many of these investors being actually Pension Funds and not Wall Street Sharks. Thus the big developers cannot afford to lose money on such deals in hopes of manipulating the market at some point, as it doesn't make sense. They will make more money by offering the apartments at the sweet spot when it will still be filled by people. There are also strings attached to the building permits, namely ALL buildings need to have a certain percentage of apartments for social use, some space for kids and many many other caveats.

Of course it won't be for free. Of course an apartment in the centre of one of the most liveable European capitals won't be cheap. But it won't be empty. It will also probably be filled by a centre-right people, which is one of the main concerns for the lefties.

Now the point about hoarding apartments can be realistic when applied to oligarchs, who don't care about the investors or loans and just need to launder their money. I would be glad to know what is the percentage of such people on the market, my hunch is telling me that it's minor and is not what drives the prices up.

Niki 17 days ago

Local elections

Will you do a similar guide to the local elections? (I assume more readers are eligible to vote in local elections than in federal elections, no?)

Simon 19 days ago

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